Showing posts from January, 2020

Forecasting the number of potential coronavirus cases

Chinese health authorities reported a group of cases of viral pneumonia to the World Health Organization (WHO) in late December 2019 and this new virus is now referred to as 2019-nCoV. The number of cases is almost eight thousand and is growing at an alarming rate of 40% per day. A total of 170 people have died as a result of the virus. The coronavirus appears to be contagious before symptoms appear with an incubation period of 10 to 14 days, making it incredibly difficult to identify cases. The number of cases reported by the National Health Commission in China and the WHO are crucial for facilitating decision-making about the virus.  A wikipedia website is dedicated to collecting the  timeline  statistics for the virus [1]. By plotting the number of confirmed cases it is apparent by eye that the numbers are growing exponentially which is demonstrated by the straight line on the above log-scale chart. If the virus maintains this trajectory, the number of cases could surpass 100,0