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NERC - Probability, Uncertainty & Risk in the Environment

 PURE: knowledge exchange network

 Collaborative Oxford Network for Bipolar Research to Improve Outcomes

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Forecasting tea productivity using local weather conditions

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Tea plantation in the western province of Rwanda. The global tea market is estimated to be worth about 38.2 billion U.S. dollars in 2016 and is projected to continue growing at 2.8% annually until 2020 [1]. After coffee, tea is Rwanda's second most valuable export where agriculture accounts for one third of economic output [2]. Tea productivity depends on a various factors such as weather, fertiliser and management practices. Hot dry conditions are generally detrimental for tea productivity and therefore daily rainfall and temperatures are important variables. A recent drought in Rwanda, claimed to be the worst in 60 years, has generated losses of up to 40% for some tea producers. Climate variability is already a concern for the agricultural sector.  Uncertainty about the impact of future climate change and the frequency and severity of weather extremes such as droughts poses substantial challenges for policymakers. Information about the current climate relies on 30-year...
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Remote health diagnosis and monitoring in the time of COVID-19

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Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), is rapidly spreading across the globe. The clinical spectrum of SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia requires early detection and monitoring, within a clinical environment for critical cases and remotely for mild cases, with a large spectrum of symptoms.  The fear of contamination in clinical environments has led to a dramatic reduction in on-site referrals for routine care. There has also been a perceived need to continuously monitor non-severe COVID-19 patients, either from their quarantine site at home, or dedicated quarantine locations (e.g. hotels). In particular, facilitating contact tracing with proximity and location tracing apps was adopted in many countries very rapidly. Thus, the pandemic has driven incentives to innovate and enhance or create new routes for providing healthcare services at distance. In particular, this has created a dramatic impetus to find innovative ways to rem...
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Forecasting the number of potential coronavirus cases

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Chinese health authorities reported a group of cases of viral pneumonia to the World Health Organization (WHO) in late December 2019 and this new virus is now referred to as 2019-nCoV. The number of cases is almost eight thousand and is growing at an alarming rate of 40% per day. A total of 170 people have died as a result of the virus. The coronavirus appears to be contagious before symptoms appear with an incubation period of 10 to 14 days, making it incredibly difficult to identify cases. The number of cases reported by the National Health Commission in China and the WHO are crucial for facilitating decision-making about the virus.  A wikipedia website is dedicated to collecting the  timeline  statistics for the virus [1]. By plotting the number of confirmed cases it is apparent by eye that the numbers are growing exponentially which is demonstrated by the straight line on the above log-scale chart. If the virus maintains this trajectory, the number of cases could...
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